Quantum Computers Seen Five Years Away from Breaking Bitcoin: ‘The Threat is Real’

Quantum computers, leveraging quantum mechanical phenomena, have long posed a theoretical threat to the cryptographic systems underpinning much of the $3.8 trillion cryptocurrency industry. This potential risk became more tangible last week when Google revealed its new quantum computing chip, Willow, which boasts a 56% improvement over its predecessor.

Experts predict that if this pace of development persists, quantum computers could soon enable hackers to compromise Bitcoin wallets directly. Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, a quantum physicist and scientist-in-residence at the University of Calgary, stated, “We are about five years away from commercial quantum computers being able to break the elliptic curve keys that secure Bitcoin wallets.” Other researchers echo this timeline, estimating that Bitcoin’s cryptography may face significant threats within 5 to 10 years.

Dallaire-Demers highlighted Bitcoin’s reliance on ECDSA 256 encryption, which secures wallets using public-private key pairs, as especially vulnerable. Shor’s algorithm—a quantum computing technique capable of efficiently factoring large numbers—could render these keys obsolete. While Bitcoin’s other encryption method, SHA-256, could be adapted by increasing hash length, addressing the vulnerabilities to Shor’s algorithm would require fundamental cryptographic changes to Bitcoin’s infrastructure.

Billions at Risk

Older Bitcoin wallets, such as pre-2012 Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) wallets, would be the first casualties. These wallets expose their public keys, making them especially susceptible to quantum attacks. Dallaire-Demers advises users still holding funds in P2PK wallets to transfer them to modern wallets immediately. However, wallets linked to Bitcoin’s anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto—holding 1.1 million Bitcoin valued at $113 billion—remain at risk due to their outdated format.

Despite reassurances from some experts that a quantum-resistant Bitcoin network may not be necessary for decades, others like Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, warn that the accelerating progress in quantum computing could force the industry to act sooner. “QC will break Bitcoin if we do not upgrade it. The threat is real,” Edwards emphasized.

Transitioning Bitcoin to quantum resistance is a daunting task, requiring at least 76 days of continuous network processing, according to projects like Quantum Resistant Ledger. While there’s no immediate threat to Bitcoin’s hashing process, the industry’s need to address quantum vulnerabilities is becoming increasingly urgent.

BitGalactic’s Take

At BitGalactic, we see this development as a wake-up call for the crypto industry. Quantum computing, while still emerging, is no longer a distant theoretical concern. The debate around quantum resistance underscores a broader need for adaptability in blockchain technology. Future-proofing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be crucial for maintaining user trust and the ecosystem’s integrity. Investors and developers must stay informed and proactive, ensuring swift responses to technological challenges like quantum computing advancements.

The timeline may vary, but preparedness will define survival in this next phase of the digital era.