How Bitcoin Predictions from Cathie Wood, Mike Novogratz, and Michael Saylor Played Out in 2024

Bitcoin down? Bitcoin up? Bitcoin really up?
It’s the eternal guessing game that crypto enthusiasts love to play. As 2024 ends, the crypto industry’s brightest names are once again making predictions for the new year. VanEck, the investment management giant, suggests that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will reach new heights in 2025. Meanwhile, Noelle Acheson, a renowned crypto analyst, forecasts Bitcoin surpassing $125,000.

But before diving into 2025 speculation, let’s assess how 2024’s predictions panned out.

Bears

Crypto insiders aren’t natural pessimists—they’ve built their careers on blockchain’s success. However, compared to some sky-high 2024 predictions, names like Arthur Hayes, VanEck, and Bitwise stood out for their cautious optimism.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, projected in late 2023 that Bitcoin would close 2024 at $70,000. Bitwise anticipated an all-time high above $80,000, while VanEck predicted Bitcoin would reach record levels by Q4 2024, without specifying a target.

Their predictions proved reasonable: Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in late 2024, crossing $100,000. While Hayes underestimated the rally, his longer-term view remains ambitious: he predicts Bitcoin could soar to $750,000–$1 million by the end of 2026.

Bulls

Tim Draper, Standard Chartered, and Matrixport took more optimistic stances. Draper, who famously forecast $250,000 Bitcoin by 2022, revised his prediction multiple times before settling on $120,000 by December 2024.

Similarly, Matrixport analysts projected $125,000 by 2024, while Standard Chartered shifted between $120,000 and $150,000 before landing on $125,000.

While their estimates weren’t far off, Bitcoin’s final 2024 price fell short by about $20,000.

Dreamers

Some predictions leaned heavily into “hopium.”

In 2021, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz predicted Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by 2024 but adjusted to $100,000 by March—one of the more accurate forecasts. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest maintained its bullish stance, with projections of $500,000 by 2026 and $1 million by 2030.

Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy went even further, envisioning Bitcoin reaching $13 million by 2045. While visionary, such extreme projections remain far from current reality.

BitGalactic’s Perspective

The crypto prediction game has always walked a fine line between analysis and aspiration. In 2024, tempered forecasts like those from VanEck and Bitwise fared best, reinforcing the importance of realism amid market hype. Bold visions from the likes of Saylor and Wood inspire confidence in crypto’s long-term potential, but they also highlight the risks of over-optimism.

At BitGalactic, we believe the key lies in measured expectations. Bitcoin’s climb past $100,000 this year is a testament to its resilience and growing mainstream acceptance. However, for 2025 and beyond, the crypto space demands a balanced approach: hope for the moon, but keep your feet on the ground.