Derive’s Sean Dawson & Nick Forster: Increasing Odds of a Bitcoin Surge

According to Derive’s research:

• There’s a 44% probability Bitcoin will hit $125,000 by mid-2025 (up from 42%).
• A 12% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.
• A 15% probability of surpassing $135,000 by Q2 2025.

FRNT Financial’s David Brickell & Chris Mills: Fed Rate Cuts Will Fuel the Rally

David Brickell and Chris Mills maintain a bullish outlook, citing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased liquidity.

“Trump is very clear on his goals, and alongside Bessent, has a plan to achieve those,” they wrote in their “Connecting the Dots” newsletter.

Lower interest rates typically push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, and they believe the Trump administration will push for lower yields, a weaker dollar, and a rising stock market—conditions favorable for crypto.

Bitwise’s Jeff Park: 10-Year Treasury Yields Hold the Key

For Jeff Park, Portfolio Manager at Bitwise, Bitcoin’s success hinges on declining U.S. 10-year Treasury yields.

“Trump wants one thing to protect his own bags, which is lower 10-year rates,” Park said.

He explained that if Treasury yields decline, risk capital will flood back into the markets:

“Risk capital in the U.S. will be on fire again because there’s now a wall of cash coming back into the market… It’s going to be great for Bitcoin.”

BitGalactic’s Perspective: The Bigger Picture

From BitGalactic’s perspective, Bitcoin’s potential breakout isn’t just about Trump or Treasury yields—it’s about the growing institutional shift towards crypto as an accepted asset class. The alignment of macroeconomic conditions, regulatory tailwinds, and institutional adoption suggests that Bitcoin’s next leg up could be bigger than most expect.

The question now isn’t if Bitcoin will rally, but rather how high and how fast.