Arthur Hayes Sounds the Alarm: Is Bitcoin Headed for a $70K Retest Amid Trump’s Crypto Play?

Arthur Hayes, the outspoken crypto investor and CIO of Maelstrom, isn’t buying the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly narrative. While Bitcoin recently touched $108,000 on speculation about a government-backed reserve, Hayes remains skeptical, warning that the market may be in for a slide back to $70,000-$75,000.

Trump’s Actions Speak Louder Than Words

In his latest blog post, Hayes contrasted Trump’s aggressive actions in other areas—such as slashing the federal government’s size and proposing hefty 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico—with his relatively passive approach to crypto. Rather than enacting real policy changes, Trump’s administration has merely created pro-crypto task forces, which Hayes sees as more symbolic than substantive.

“When Trump wants to act, he acts,” Hayes wrote, emphasizing that if real change were coming, it would already be happening.

The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: A Game Changer or a Political Weapon?

One of the hottest topics in the crypto world right now is the idea of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (BSR). Although this concept has been circulating in crypto circles for years, recent political momentum has revived interest. Trump’s inner circle, along with pro-crypto lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis, have floated the idea of the U.S. government acquiring 1 million BTC over the next five years.

BitGalactic analysts point out that while this could be a historic shift in how governments view digital assets, it also raises serious concerns. If the U.S. were to amass such a stockpile, who would control it? Would it be limited to Bitcoin, or could other cryptocurrencies—including altcoins like XRP—be included?

Hayes warns that a government-controlled crypto reserve could become a political tool, wielded against opponents. In a scenario where a future Democrat administration takes power, the BSR could be sold off, potentially tanking Bitcoin’s price and punishing pro-crypto voters who supported Trump.

“To an incoming Democrat-controlled legislature or presidency, finding easy piles of cash to spend on goodies for their supporters is the first directive,” Hayes cautioned.

Regulatory Capture and the Crypto Elite

Despite Trump’s pro-crypto rhetoric, Hayes isn’t convinced that regulation under his administration will benefit everyday crypto builders. Instead, he sees a future where only deep-pocketed institutions like Coinbase and BlackRock have the resources to shape policy and navigate complex regulations. This, in turn, could leave smaller projects and independent developers out in the cold.

“To all you builders globally who are relocating to America because of a perceived crypto-friendly administration, take heed,” Hayes warned, suggesting that only the biggest players will truly benefit from any forthcoming policies.

Final Thoughts: A Cautious Outlook

While Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, Hayes maintains his forecast that a retest of $70K-$75K is likely. The market’s current optimism about Trump’s crypto stance may be misplaced, and without decisive policy action, Bitcoin’s recent highs may be short-lived.

BitGalactic sees this as a wake-up call for investors: politics and crypto are becoming increasingly intertwined, and regulatory uncertainty remains a significant risk. Whether Trump delivers on his crypto promises or not, the road ahead for Bitcoin will be shaped as much by policy as by market fundamentals.