Crypto ETFs Are Flooding the SEC – Which Ones Are Most Likely to Get Approved?

The race for crypto ETFs is heating up, and all eyes are on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). With the arrival of Donald Trump’s pro-crypto administration, a wave of new filings has hit the agency, signaling a potential shift in regulatory attitudes toward digital assets.

So, which ETFs are most likely to secure approval? According to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, several altcoins stand out, with some having a significantly higher probability of receiving the green light in 2025.

The Most Likely Crypto ETFs to Get Approved

1. Litecoin (LTC) – 90% Approval Odds

Leading the pack is Litecoin, which has the best chance of becoming the first altcoin ETF. The SEC likely classifies LTC as a commodity rather than a security, simplifying the approval process.

Grayscale’s Litecoin Trust filing was acknowledged in January, followed by Canary Capital’s application in early February. With an October 2 deadline, analysts believe Litecoin ETFs have checked all the necessary regulatory boxes.

2. Dogecoin (DOGE) – 75% Approval Odds

The internet’s favorite memecoin is not just a joke anymore. Dogecoin’s 75% approval odds come from its commodity-like classification, similar to Litecoin.

Grayscale and Bitwise are awaiting SEC acknowledgment, with a final decision expected by October 18. If approved, this could be a major win for the DOGE community and meme-based investments.

3. Solana (SOL) – 70% Approval Odds

Solana holds strong institutional backing, with applications from Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares. However, there’s a significant hurdle: the SEC has previously categorized SOL as a security in legal battles with major exchanges.

“The lawsuits need to be settled before the SEC moves forward with approval,” Seyffart noted. The commission’s decision is expected by October 10.

4. XRP – 65% Approval Odds

Despite XRP’s widespread use, its legal entanglements make approval uncertain. Ripple’s ongoing lawsuit with the SEC remains a critical factor, and until there’s clear resolution, an XRP ETF is unlikely.

That said, JPMorgan estimates over $8 billion could flow into an XRP ETF if it gets the green light. The SEC has until October 17 to decide.

5. Polkadot (DOT) – Uncertain Future

21Shares filed for a Polkadot ETF in January, but market sentiment has been mixed. “This is up there with the most skepticism I’ve ever seen for an ETF filing,” Seyffart remarked. While Polkadot already has an ETP in Switzerland, its U.S. approval remains uncertain as the SEC has yet to set a deadline.

6. Hedera (HBAR) – A Long Shot

Canary Capital applied for an HBAR ETF in late 2024, but analysts remain unconvinced. Bloomberg’s Balchunas humorously commented, “Every two years, an ETF filing pops up where I have to Google what it tracks—this was one of those times.” The SEC has yet to acknowledge the filing.

BitGalactic’s Take: What This Means for the Market

At BitGalactic, we see this flood of ETF applications as a defining moment for crypto adoption. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 set a precedent, and if even a few of these altcoin ETFs pass, it could unlock a new wave of institutional investments.

However, investors should remain cautious. While Trump’s administration may be more crypto-friendly, the SEC’s stance on classifying altcoins remains a key barrier. Regulatory clarity will determine how quickly these ETFs move forward.

Final Thoughts

The crypto market is evolving rapidly, and the next few months will be crucial in shaping its future. Will Litecoin, Dogecoin, or Solana be the next big ETF success stories? Or will legal and regulatory hurdles slow down the momentum?

Stay tuned to BitGalactic for the latest updates on crypto ETFs and the broader financial landscape.